The COVID-19 Race Report

horse and child

The COVID–19 Race Report

This is the OLD Race Report from the first ~90 days of the Covid-19 Pandemic. Did you buy your Vaccine Company Stocks?

The Race Report March 28 Day 83*
Data from 10:00 CET 30 March 2020 12:16 PM PST
The actual numbers reported to the United Nations every day.

693,224 total confirmed cases
(58,411 New over Night)
33,106 total deaths
(3,215 NoN)
4.77566% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.14124%
[WHO, it slowed a bit today]

Worldwide Hospital Odds:
20 to 1 You live, 4.78% chance you die if you go to hospital and have to go into intensive care.
11,111 to 1 you will be a confirmed case, a 0.0090029090909091% chance
398.86747 average daily new deaths %W .00000516883117%
>20,000,000 to 1 you will live today.

March 28 Day 81*Data from 10:00 CET 28 March 2020 4:35 PM PST
571,678 total confirmed cases
(62,514 new overnight NoN
26,494 total deaths
(3159 NoN)
4.63442% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.13157% [WHO]
327.08642 average daily new deaths
Worldwide Hospital Odds:
20.6 to 1 You live, 4.63442% chance you die.

These numbers are the running percentages — the daily averages and odds. Think about it like a race car. Once the system is up and running and it’s on the track there are adjustments you can do but “the car” is on the track. This virus is out there running around in our societies medical systems and you can’t change what came before this race started. The car is built, it’s done and now it’s running. What you can do is “observe and change” over and over again until you win the race.

What you need to be aware of as a Race Engineer is what effect a change has on the car — as a whole system and that is where your “running numbers” come in. These are the running numbers. In horse racing terms it’s similar to the kind of effect with the horse and riders performance changing together, during the day. These changes also are observable with the variable of which horses are running together and their position in the starting gate. Sounds Crazy but it’s true. So this is the Race Report.

Worldwide Daily Risk Index Estimate is 4.6% – 4.75%.*

If you go into the hospital this percentage of the risk of dying  is the same risk range as a heart attack or heart disease. (see chart)
Worldwide It’s 21.6 to 1 odds you live, 4.6% – 4.75% chance you die  after you get sick enough to go to the hospital and end up in intensive care 
Stale Data/Test Gap Problem : Fix the data stream and know the lag time and you can deal with it. There is a ~5 day testing lag in this data from W.H.O.] The USA finally admits testing lag for the past 30 days. Testing lag time can be less than 2 days or almost immediate.

Side note about testing:
I would rather have a test swab that only has a 30% confirmed positive rate and a 0.5% false negative rate. Then I would use 4 swabs and if they all came back positive you could trust the result. Holding people for 28 days until a nasal and a throat swab both come back negative together is a problem if your swabs have a high percentage of false positives. There are 4 variables: Positive and Negative, False Positive and False Negative per test.
[I think I said it the right way, I hope so]

March 28 Day 81*Data from 10:00 CET 28 March 2020 4:35 PM PST

571,678 confirmed cases (62,514 new overnight NoN + 12.27777%)
26,494 deaths (3159 NoN +11.92345% DoD)
4.63442% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.13157% [WHO]
327.08642 average daily new deaths %W .00034407792208
Worldwide in hospital and you die odds: 21.6 to 1 You live worldwide
Odds that you will be a confirmed case: 290,698 to 1
Here is the problem with the odds these are NOT all hospital cases anymore. With widespread testing the odds are in your favor more than they were. The reality is in this following chart which shows that over a 10 year time span of actual accounting data (from billing data) these were the percentages of deaths in the hospital in the USA:
IF you are in the hospital with a influenza virus the odds that you die in percentages are about 0.5%. That’s a 95% chance you live or 200 to 1 you live
The Numbers in the post below are from data over a 10 year time span in the U.S.A.. This is from the whole country not just one province in China. The W.H.O. (World Health Organization) estimated that in China the death rate per 100 hospitalizations as a whole including the new virus Corona 19 was 2.1% a decline by .2 percent with this virus.

AFAWK In descending order of risk and depending on the co-diagnosis with a particular flu virus the number of dead people per 100 (percentage) who are hospitalized with the flu is:

#1 Corona SARS 1 ~10%
[depends on co-diagnosis — not broken out in US Fed data]
#2 Corona MRSA ~6%
[depends on co-diagnosis — not broken out in US Fed data, (small number of cases)]
#3 Corona 19 Current Year ~0.60-0.9% (W.H.O. initial worldwide estimate)
#4 Influenza A&B  ~0.5-0.6% dead people per 100.
[All influenza viruses for the last 10 years included. US Fed Accounting Data]

What that means is that in the USA:
Influenza A&B odds are: 200 to 1 down to about 167 to 1 that you live.
IF you had another condition AND the flu the odds that you would die increased  ~1.7 percent to a 59 to 1 odds you live, down from 200 to 1.
Normal Flu
: 200 to 1 you live
Flu plus: 59 to 1 you live
SARS 1: 10 to 1 you live
MRSA: 16.7 to 1 you live
COVID-19: 59 to 1 up to 111 to one you live [WHO Estimate]
All Flu Worldwide: 48 to 1 you live

March 26 Day 79* Data from 10:00 CET 26 March 2020 4:40 PM PST

462,684 confirmed cases (49, 219 new overnight NoN + 11.90349%)
20,834 deaths (2401 NoN +9.03724% DoD)
4.50286% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.04476% [WHO]
263.722 average daily new deaths %W .00027057142857

Total world case distribution

The major shift is the +10 to +15 k new cases per day in USA most likely due to test kit shortages days ago. These shortages hampered self isolation.

EU is 54.211298% of total world cases 66.95786% of total world deaths
250,287 cases (29,711 NoN) and 13,950 (1964 NoN)
Western Pacific is slightly down at 21.40943% total
99,058 confirmed (1292) 3540 deaths (22)
[this will probably continue to fall]
Region of the Americas 16.36365%
RoA 75,712 cases (14 878 NoN) 1065 deaths (252 NoN)
Region of the Americas is Down in world percentage totals.
The EU is Higher.
East Med down at 7.011696968%
32,442 confirmed (2811) 2162 deaths (154)
Worst hit in order in the EU are:
Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Switzerland, UK
 

March 26 Day 78* Data from 10:00 CET 25 March 2020 6:00 AM PST

413,467 confirmed cases (40, 712 new overnight NoN)
18,433 deaths (2202 NoN)
4.4581% world case death daily average today UP. [WHO]
236.320 average daily new deaths %W .00023938961039
EU comprises 81.60763% of world totals overnight as well as 65.02468% of total world deaths. The Western Pacific including China is pretty quiet now.
The cycle time is about 4–6 weeks.
 
USA: 51914 total confirmed with a current 1.29% risk rate that may rise, probably due to the 9750 new cases overnight. We are still at a 0.01731% case rate. Case day rate took off in the last three days, probably due to the 5 day test wait time and rationed test kits. So there may be some catch up going on. it’s been at ~10,000 new cases per day but that’s data that might be up to ~5 days old. The WHO criteria are used here
 
New York is 50% of total
Highest to Lowest: NY, NJ, CA, WA, FL, LA, MI.
Important to note that NY is in the same range as France Iran and Germany. CA is same range as Norway, Canada, Portugal.
 
* The running daily average death per case over the number of days range estimate was 4.125% – 4.25% for the first 70 days now it’s 4.6 to 4.75%.
[/read]
 – gtk
–end–
Image by AD_Images from Pixabay

My Personal Health Record

My Medical Life Record
AKA
My EHRS, My Lucy, My CCD, My CDA and  My EHR

Stick it on your phone everybody OR carry it on a thumb drive/memory stick. It’s a XML document or pdf you can import into your iphone or store on a thumb drive there are several different kinds of documents available. I have a folder called:
My_EHRS_Health_Summary
plus another folder called:
My_EMR_Medical_Records
with appropriate sub folders:
My_Health_Tests and My_Health_Visits

Like this screen shot shows:

health record folder layout
health record folder layout

I have worked in College Textbook Publishing (Anatomy and Physiology, Microbiology and Health) all my career and it took literally two days to research and write this curated article. I know what SGML and XML is. [Ouch already there is a ouch in here, sheesh!]

I have no idea what the records are called or what to look for, so read on to see why if you dare. Here we go on the internet together:

 

Sunset From Roof
Sunset From Roof June 3 2019

This next article discusses “meaningful use” which I thought was interesting because it is the whole: Is she drunk? is it toe fungus OR a ruptured brain aneurysm conundrum.

 

Eagle Point Sunset 2016
Eagle point sunset 2016

OK so I am interested in how these things work and how I can get it into my phone so I apparently digressed for a week and now I am back at it again. What levels of record are available, what is in them?

Wrong question. (!)
Which record do I need so I don’t die if I am unconscious?
Ding ding ding!  Winner!

The correct way to ask the question is like we just did and there are three kinds of records that The United States of America’s Healthcare IT Department has discovered.

From that website with “curator comments”:

EMR

Electronic medical records (EMRs) are a digital version of the paper charts in the clinician’s office. Legitmus notes => Each office has one folder of records for you.

EHR

Electronic health records (EHRs) do all those things—and more. EHRs focus on the total health of the patient—going beyond standard clinical data collected in the provider’s office and inclusive of a broader view on a patient’s care. EHRs are designed to reach out beyond the health organization that originally collects and compiles the information. They are built to share information with other health care providers, such as laboratories and specialists, so they contain information from all the clinicians involved in the patient’s care.  Legitimus Notes => Each hospital or healthcare organization has a large folder or in my case a box for you BUT they need to have the managing physicians basic patient exchange/transfer document on top of the boxes or folders. It’s like stapling “the most important thing in the word to this patient” is this letter on the outside of the chart OR the first page in it. What the heck is that called? [Hint: It’s like a old time Doctor’s transfer the patient letter?  i.e., a Lucy/CCD/EHR]

PHR

Personal health records (PHRs) contain the same types of information as EHRs—diagnoses, medications, immunizations, family medical histories, and provider contact information—but are designed to be set up, accessed, and managed by patients.

Let’s stop here for a money moment.
Apple wants to do what?
Stick it on your phone.

What does the publisher do?
Email me the XML file please.
Thanks!

—Legitimus

Take Away Key Terms:

CCD and CCR  <= ~The same thing: Clinical Care Document is perhaps the latest acronym. Continuity of Care Record was from MA State and
ASTM https://www.astm.org/Standards/E2369.htm 

CCD The Continuity of Care Document (CCD) is a joint effort of HL7 International and ASTM.

C-CDA Consolidated Clinical Document Architecture a Corepoint term.

CDA A hl7.org term

Lucy Record <= A health record summary Epic Systems My Chart term AKA C-CDA, CCD, CCR (Pick one)

EMR Electronic Medical Record
EHR Electronic Health Record
PHR Personal Health Record

EHRS Electronic Health Record Summary [I made this up myself]

XHRS XML Electronic Health Record Summary “Xhers” Stunning,. isn’t it. All that to get to this: What you want or have is a XML Electronic Health Record Summary which in the textbook and media  publishing world of SGML would get a custom XML DTD.  Probably it would be called XHRS the XHRS DTD would have custom  style sheets probably starting with XHRS as the prefix like this: xhrs.xsl

Legitimus Notes:
Today we have XML electronic health record summaries called among other things  Lucy or CCD records that can save your life. Please make sure yours is up to date. If you are ever taken to a psychiatric facility make them look at the Lucy/CCD records from your last doctor visit before they assume you just tried to commit suicide by walking the wrong way down the street OR falling down on the Golden Gate Bridge. (It’s a Black Humor San Francisco Joke)

(!) Every CDA record type should have these things in it:
Header <–Obvious, who what where when.
Body <– A problem if it is not in sections, it can be in one big blob full of PDF files of written records, and electronic records.
Section(s) <–This should eliminate the “reading through your toe fungus problem to get to your brain cancer problem”.
Narrative Block <–What the Doctor or PA wrote about the visit or observation AND/OR the interpretation of the scientific evidence.
Entries <–the scientific evidence including machine readable records of BP/HR etc., etc.,

Way more stuff:

 

 

Block quote from
https://www.healthcareittoday.com/tag/lucy-phr/

Lucy is a PHR that is not connected to any facility’s electronic medical record system. It stays with patients wherever they receive care and allows them to organize their medical information in one place that is readily accessible. Patients can enter health data directly into Lucy, pull in MyChart data or upload standards-compliant Continuity of Care Documents from other facilities.

It’s a XML document you can load into your iphone and view in a web browser or store on a thumb drive. You can email it and it comes encrypted or unencrypted. But technically it is a CCD or CCR not a PHR.

Confused I was, now I am not, Thanks Mr. Legitimus.

Tech Support from apple:
https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT208680

How do I put medical records on my Iphone?
Add your health records
  1. Open the Health app, then tap the Health Data tab.
  2. Tap Health Records > Get Started. …
  3. Search for your hospital or network, then tap it.
  4. Under Available To Connect, choose an option.
  5. Sign in to your healthcare provider’s website or app. …
  6. Wait for your records to update.

References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuity_of_Care_Document

and

Clinical Document Architecture (CDA)

Links:

What am I using?
Plus email? (because my EHRS  ~800KB and EMR  is 700 MB?)
Email the Xhrs docs to myself on my phone and done.

Metal thumb drive for medical records
Kingston usb thumb drive for medical records from Amazon: Kingston Digital DataTraveler SE9 16GB USB 2.0 (DTSE9H/16GBZET)

 

Letter to the Local Children, The Witch Fans

Letter to the Local Children, The Witch Fans

Yes I know you like me, I like you too. It’s hard to communicate together sometimes. People used to think I was brain damaged and it made life very difficult for me. It was because of the way I looked. The real reason is that there are some stories you never tell because they are very scary to adults.

Sometimes people came from miles away just to see Xxxxx Xxxxxx’s adopted son. Just to see what I looked like. Please see the page The People of Magic if you want more information. I was called a lot of names, but the secret was I was supposedly a Rus and Celt albino or a German albino or other things. Nobody knew,.. because we didn’t tell anybody.

I was born different and was in the LA Children’s hospital for 26 days:

It was the best one in California.
People said I was a miracle baby because my heart kept stopping and starting when I was in my mom. I got adopted and stayed in LA because the best chance for me was LA. Here is a preview of the people of magic page:

The People of Magic
This is what I looked like in 1981. People said I looked like a witch kid, a young wizard, or a magic pagan person from the forests.

The People of Magic. There are some very different types of Magic in the world today. There is Disney Witches and Wizards Magic, Harry Potter Witches and Wizards Magic and The Real World of Witches Wizards and Magic. gypsypagan.com

Whenever you can see the stars and moons you know you are safe. That is what the little bug thing above this sentence means to people. The name of this website gypsypagans.com is a problem to some people but they don’t know what it means:
It’s mean if you say gypsy or pagan to certain people, you should ask first.
There was a gypsy and pagan holocaust in World War II and even before that they blamed people that had candles in their homes on tables they didn’t understand. You had to look for a key on the doorway or a upside down star or other special signals or signs. That’s where that comes from —those kinds of people. It was the candle magic that brought the spirit to people even in the Lands of the Celts. Don’t forget the The Celts and The Pagans:

Bing: The Celts
Bing: The Celts
The Pagans, Paganism
Bing: The Pagans, Paganism
Snowball Rose Bush
Snowball Rose Bush

I started this post because it seemed like some people who grew up here and went through the schools in Redlands California have some issues with being “special people” as adults. I have lived here for almost 20 years now and people have told my stories to each other. The problem was I had a few evil adults who listened in to my house and told awful stories about what they heard and that was wrong. They called me a child molester. It was super mean. When people call you a child molester in a store or a restaurant OR they don’t tell your new neighbors who you really are, you can get hurt so bad that Sometimes it won’t wash off and sometimes it won’t go away. .

SnowBall Rose Bush 2
Snowball rose bush two

Back to my story:
This time I thought that I was being attacked by Neurodivergent Narwhals. It was the only thing that made sense and I asked the Inland Empire Autistic people for help to figure it out. These people were not acting like normal people. It took 15 years for some of them to confess that they were the ones that hurt me and other people I loved. This is when I was a kid in the 1970’s living in Arcadia California. They were from Redlands and we never knew it back then. I am ready to go someplace else now.

Here is the old original post that makes less sense if you don’t know my personal background and you come to visit.

Help I am being attacked by Neurodivergent Narwhals on cell phones that they are calling “Wiccan’s[Mean, that’s mean to call a cellphone a Wiccan] today and apparently some of them live near me. 05/10/19

I am a work at home web developer and the mean people found my other website because: Telling someone that you will stop harassing them if they make changes to a website is not fair.

Facebook will not let wordpress do the pretty links so here it is,..
YES I am NOT  Pathologizing this subject. 

 

In my life I got nailed by the perfect storm of undiscovered autism in my adopted family and friends (3+ people) plus “undiscovered” autistic people and their interaction with the elderly in my neighborhood.

Trying to be sensitive to the issues is hard when you are “small town famous” and you have kids that are fans.

The problem I am talking about here is that autism and dementia can be deadly if the combination exists within a family OR it is in a neighborhood and nobody knows about it. If it’s hidden or undiscovered and you don’t know about it you will be confused about the responses you get from people.

Some of the autistic children need coaching in dangerous situations. They need to know when to call the Police Department OR the Fire Department themselves.
If they rely on a disinterested or sick (drunk) elderly population for their cues OR judgement about what is normal and what is not, they will have problems reacting and taking care of themselves in a emergency or helping others that need their help.

Think about this example for one moment:
Someone next door says: “Help I am bleeding to death”
The possibly sick elderly say: “He’s lying” or “She’s Drunk” or “They are just lying down on the rocks” How is a autistic child (or other elderly) supposed to know what to do?
If it sounds like dangerous talk, then the talk is about danger.

Call the 911 danger experts. 

This is happening too much here and is affecting quality of life issues. Here is your local group and resources to go talk to please:


Thank you Neurodivergent Narwhals Facebook Page
Oh what are the magic words to make people understand?

We reached out to a local school hoping that this never happens again where autistic children have to rely on demented elderly (they have since passed away) to call the Police Department or Fire Department for themselves or others. Hopefully they can help teach the children and their parents about this hidden safety issue. I think it boils down to the “dangerous talk issue” [dangerous talk of all kinds].

How do you teach safety about “dangerous talk”?

I think I will leave it up to the experts on this one.

-gtk