This is the OLD Race Report from the first ~90 days of the Covid-19 Pandemic.Did you buy your Vaccine Company Stocks?
The Race Report March 28 Day 83*
Data from 10:00 CET 30 March 2020 12:16 PM PST
The actual numbers reported to the United Nations every day.
693,224 total confirmed cases
(58,411 New over Night) 33,106 total deaths
(3,215 NoN)
4.77566% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.14124%
[WHO, it slowed a bit today]
Worldwide Hospital Odds:
20 to 1 You live, 4.78% chance you die if you go to hospital and have to go into intensive care.
11,111 to 1 you will be a confirmed case, a 0.0090029090909091% chance
398.86747 average daily new deaths %W .00000516883117% >20,000,000 to 1 you will live today.
March 28 Day 81*Data from 10:00 CET 28 March 2020 4:35 PM PST 571,678 total confirmed cases (62,514 new overnight NoN 26,494 total deaths (3159 NoN) 4.63442% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.13157% [WHO] 327.08642 average daily new deaths Worldwide Hospital Odds: 20.6 to 1 You live, 4.63442% chance you die.
These numbers are the running percentages — the daily averages and odds. Think about it like a race car. Once the system is up and running and it’s on the track there are adjustments you can do but “the car” is on the track. This virus is out there running around in our societies medical systems and you can’t change what came before this race started. The car is built, it’s done and now it’s running. What you can do is “observe and change” over and over again until you win the race.
What you need to be aware of as a Race Engineer is what effect a change has on the car — as a whole system and that is where your “running numbers” come in. These are the running numbers. In horse racing terms it’s similar to the kind of effect with the horse and riders performance changing together, during the day. These changes also are observable with the variable of which horses are running together and their position in the starting gate. Sounds Crazy but it’s true. So this is theRace Report.
Worldwide Daily RiskIndexEstimate is 4.6% – 4.75%.*
If you go into the hospital this percentage of the risk of dying is the same risk range as a heart attack or heart disease. (see chart)
Worldwide It’s 21.6 to 1 odds you live, 4.6% – 4.75% chance you die after you get sick enough to go to the hospital and end up in intensive care
Stale Data/Test Gap Problem : Fix the data stream and know the lag time and you can deal with it. There is a ~5 day testing lag in this data from W.H.O.] The USA finally admits testing lag for the past 30 days. Testing lag time can be less than 2 days or almost immediate.
Side note about testing:
I would rather have a test swab that only has a 30% confirmed positive rate and a 0.5%false negative rate. Then I would use 4 swabs and if they all came back positive you could trust the result. Holding people for 28 days until a nasal and a throat swab both come back negative together is a problem if your swabs have a high percentage of false positives. There are 4 variables: Positive and Negative, False Positive and False Negative per test. [I think I said it the right way, I hope so]
March 28 Day 81*Data from 10:00 CET 28 March 2020 4:35 PM PST
571,678 confirmed cases (62,514 new overnight NoN + 12.27777%)
26,494 deaths (3159 NoN +11.92345% DoD)
4.63442% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.13157% [WHO]
327.08642 average daily new deaths %W .00034407792208
Worldwide in hospital and you die odds: 21.6 to 1 You live worldwide
Odds that you will be a confirmed case: 290,698 to 1
Here is the problem with the odds these are NOTall hospital cases anymore. With widespread testing the odds are in your favor more than they were. The reality is in this following chart which shows that over a 10 year time span of actual accounting data (from billing data) these were the percentages of deaths in the hospital in the USA:
IF you are in the hospital with a influenza virus the odds that you die in percentages are about 0.5%. That’s a 95% chance you live or 200 to 1 you live
The Numbers in the post below are from data over a 10 year time span in the U.S.A.. This is from the whole country not just one province in China. The W.H.O. (World Health Organization) estimated that in China the death rate per 100 hospitalizations as a whole including the new virus Corona 19 was 2.1% a decline by .2 percent with this virus.
AFAWK In descending order of risk and depending on the co-diagnosis with a particular flu virus the number of dead people per 100 (percentage) who are hospitalizedwith the flu is:
#1 Corona SARS 1 ~10%
[depends on co-diagnosis — not broken out in US Fed data]
#2 Corona MRSA ~6%
[depends on co-diagnosis — not broken out in US Fed data, (small number of cases)]
#3 Corona 19 Current Year ~0.60-0.9% (W.H.O. initial worldwide estimate)
#4 Influenza A&B ~0.5-0.6% dead people per 100.
[All influenza viruses for the last 10 years included. US Fed Accounting Data]
What that means is that in the USA:
Influenza A&B odds are: 200 to 1 down to about 167 to 1 that you live. IFyou had another condition AND the flu the odds that you would die increased ~1.7 percent to a 59 to 1 odds you live, down from 200 to 1.
Normal Flu: 200 to 1 you live Flu plus: 59 to 1 you live SARS 1: 10 to 1 you live MRSA: 16.7 to 1 you live COVID-19: 59 to 1 up to 111 to one you live [WHO Estimate] All Flu Worldwide: 48 to 1 you live
March 26 Day 79*Data from 10:00 CET 26 March 2020 4:40 PM PST
462,684 confirmed cases (49, 219 new overnight NoN + 11.90349%)
20,834 deaths (2401 NoN +9.03724% DoD)
4.50286% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.04476% [WHO]
263.722 average daily new deaths %W .00027057142857
Total world case distribution
The major shift is the +10 to +15 k new cases per day in USA most likely due to test kit shortages days ago. These shortages hampered self isolation.
EU is 54.211298% of total world cases 66.95786% of total world deaths
250,287 cases (29,711 NoN) and 13,950 (1964 NoN)
Western Pacific is slightly down at 21.40943% total
99,058 confirmed (1292) 3540 deaths (22)
[this will probably continue to fall]
Region of the Americas16.36365% RoA 75,712 cases (14 878 NoN) 1065 deaths (252 NoN)
Region of the Americas isDown in world percentage totals.
The EU is Higher.
East Med down at 7.011696968%
32,442 confirmed (2811) 2162 deaths (154)
Worst hit in order in the EU are:
Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Switzerland, UK
March 26 Day 78*Data from 10:00 CET 25 March 2020 6:00 AM PST
413,467 confirmed cases (40, 712 new overnight NoN)
18,433 deaths (2202 NoN)
4.4581% world case death daily average today UP. [WHO]
236.320 average daily new deaths %W .00023938961039
EU comprises 81.60763% of world totals overnight as well as 65.02468% of total world deaths. The Western Pacific including China is pretty quiet now.
The cycle time is about 4–6 weeks.
USA: 51914 total confirmed with a current 1.29% risk rate that may rise, probably due to the 9750 new cases overnight. We are still at a 0.01731% case rate. Case day rate took off in the last three days, probably due to the 5 day test wait time and rationed test kits. So there may be some catch up going on. it’s been at ~10,000 new cases per day but that’s data that might be up to ~5 days old. The WHO criteria are used here
New York is 50% of total
Highest to Lowest: NY, NJ, CA, WA, FL, LA, MI.
Important to note that NY is in the same range as France Iran and Germany. CA is same range as Norway, Canada, Portugal.
* The running daily average death per case over the number of days range estimate was 4.125% – 4.25% for the first 70 days now it’s 4.6 to 4.75%.
My Medical Life Record
AKA My EHRS, My Lucy, My CCD, My CDA and My EHR
Stick it on your phone everybody OR carry it on a thumb drive/memory stick. It’s a XML document or pdf you can import into your iphone or store on a thumb drive there are several different kinds of documents available. I have a folder called: My_EHRS_Health_Summary
plus another folder called: My_EMR_Medical_Records
with appropriate sub folders: My_Health_Tests and My_Health_Visits
Like this screen shot shows:
I have worked in College Textbook Publishing (Anatomy and Physiology, Microbiology and Health) all my career and it took literally two days to research and write this curated article. I know what SGML and XML is. [Ouch already there is a ouch in here, sheesh!]
I have no idea what the records are called or what to look for, so read on to see why if you dare. Here we go on the internet together:
Health Standards In The News: CCD and Consolidated CDA - Corepoint Health
Legitimus comments => What is a Clinical Care Document? What Types of Records are Available?: Usually they are called CCD [old State of MA CCR] and the whole thing is called the CDA [Clinical Document Architecture]. The main subject here to me is meaningful clinical use. Which should be obvious to laypersons. Can they USE the thing on the other end? does it have enough information in it to transfer the patient?
corepointhealth => It's primary purpose is for exchange – specifically in the context of a patient being transferred from one care setting to another.
Legitimus comments => OK is this what I need to not die? Err, maybe, exactly what is it they have for me that is available?
Key terms: C-CDA CCD and CCR [Check!]
This next article discusses “meaningful use” which I thought was interesting because it is the whole: Is she drunk? is it toe fungus OR a ruptured brain aneurysm conundrum.
5 things to know about CCD
Legitimus comments =>
This article discusses meaningful use and what that means: A CCD [Clinical Care Document] is a snapshot with 17 different sections that is supposed to include the information that is critical to provide continuity of care of the patient. Meaning a medical condition that is super important will not be lost but may not be what you were in the Dr. Office or hospital FOR this last time. The Dr's need to know about the life critical issues to triage correctly in an emergency.
The triage should also be based on prior scientific evidence not just a 5 minute snapshot of the vitals at one moment in time in order to fast track correctly.
A CCR started out as a Continuity of Care Record that was three pages long created by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.
Custom Healthcare IT Extract=> What is the difference between a CCD document and a CCR document? Brull said in a class he teaches, the "three C's of healthcare" are discussed: CCD, CDA and CCR, or Continuity of Care Record. "The CCD owes its existence to CCR and CDA," he said. "The CCR started out as a three-page paper document, which was used in patient care referrals." Additionally, the CCR was created by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and included information necessary for providers to effectively continue care. "Since it was a very successful document in the transfer of care scenario, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health teamed up with ASTM and the Massachusetts Medical Society to create an electronic version of CCR," said Brull. Eventually, he continued, ASTM combined efforts with HL7 to construct the CCD document, which includes all the same content of the CCR, but under the architecture of the CDA.
Legitmus => Yes meaningful use is important. Is it a CCD or a CCR? meaning a CCD is a Lucy but a CCR is the Mass. version of a Lucy? [YES]
OK so I am interested in how these things work and how I can get it into my phone so I apparently digressed for a week and now I am back at it again. What levels of record are available, what is in them?
Wrong question. (!)
Which record do I need so I don’t die if I am unconscious? Ding ding ding! Winner!
What are the differences between electronic medical records, electronic health records, and personal health records?
Learn more about the important differences between electronic medical records, electronic health records, and personal health records.
From that website with “curator comments”:
EMR
Electronic medical records (EMRs) are a digital version of the paper charts in the clinician’s office. Legitmus notes => Each office has one folder of records for you.
EHR
Electronic health records (EHRs) do all those things—and more. EHRs focus on the total health of the patient—going beyond standard clinical datacollected in the provider’s office and inclusive of a broader view on a patient’s care. EHRs are designed to reach out beyond the health organization that originally collects and compiles the information. They are built to share information with other health care providers, such as laboratories and specialists, so they contain information from all the clinicians involved in the patient’s care. Legitimus Notes => Each hospital or healthcare organization has a large folder or in my case a box for you BUT they need to have the managing physicians basic patient exchange/transfer document on top of the boxes or folders. It’s like stapling “the most important thing in the word to this patient” is this letter on the outside of the chart OR the first page in it. What the heck is that called? [Hint: It’s like a old time Doctor’s transfer the patient letter? i.e., a Lucy/CCD/EHR]
PHR
Personal health records (PHRs) contain the same types of information as EHRs—diagnoses, medications, immunizations, family medical histories, and provider contact information—but are designed to be set up, accessed, and managed by patients.
Let’s stop here for a money moment.
Apple wants to do what?
Stick it on your phone.
What does the publisher do?
Email me the XML file please.
Thanks!
Lucy Record <= A health record summary Epic Systems My Chart term AKA C-CDA, CCD, CCR (Pick one)
EMR Electronic Medical Record EHR Electronic Health Record PHR Personal Health Record
EHRS Electronic Health Record Summary [I made this up myself]
XHRS XML Electronic Health Record Summary “Xhers” Stunning,. isn’t it. All that to get to this: What you want or have is a XML Electronic Health Record Summary which in the textbook and media publishing world of SGML would get a custom XML DTD. Probably it would be called XHRS the XHRS DTD would have custom style sheets probably starting with XHRS as the prefix like this: xhrs.xsl
Legitimus Notes: Today we have XMLelectronic health record summaries called among other things Lucy or CCD records that can save your life. Please make sure yours is up to date. If you are ever taken to a psychiatric facility make them look at the Lucy/CCD records from your last doctor visit before they assume you just tried to commit suicide by walking the wrong way down the streetORfalling down on the Golden Gate Bridge. (It’s a Black Humor San Francisco Joke)
(!) Every CDA record type should have these things in it: Header <–Obvious, who what where when. Body <– A problem if it is not in sections, it can be in one big blob full of PDF files of written records, and electronic records. Section(s) <–This should eliminate the “reading through your toe fungus problem to get to your brain cancer problem”. Narrative Block <–What the Doctor or PA wrote about the visit or observation AND/OR the interpretation of the scientific evidence. Entries <–the scientific evidence including machine readable records of BP/HR etc., etc.,
Way more stuff:
Insider Report: Apple Brings Provider Medical Records Into the IPhone
Legitimus => The Apple health app already supports C-CDA XML documents. You can import them. The difference is being able to seamlessly import records from beta sites such as UC San Diego or Cedars-Sinai.
PHR records is what we need here. If you can't get the data make your own on your phone.
histalk => Patients will be able to view information extracted from the provider’s EHR [Electronic Health Records] that includes their allergies, conditions, immunizations, lab results, medications, vital signs, and procedures. The encrypted information is stored on the user’s IPhone rather than on Apple’s servers.
Legitimus=> Getting the records yourself and putting it on your phone yourself is what Apple is making possible for a patient to do without hospital intervention. You can do it from a patient portal login on the phone (1) in the health app or a web browser and save the file on the phone OR ask for the record when you leave the facility. Either way works I probably would save the xml file so I could email it to a new provider at the front desk. [ (1) Changes are thanks to a reader suggestion ]
Legitimus=> You can also store it [CCD or a C-CDA, your patient transfer records] on a memory stick but you can not read it on your phone. If you need to show someone your records in the field you need to be able to look at them. A phone is handy for that.
I Have Seen The Portal, And It Is Handy
Legitimus comments => Interoperability issues from proprietary health records systems means patients still need to download their own records and put them on a memory stick or a phone.
healthcareittoday customized extract to end of box--> Lucy is a PHR [Personal Health Record] that is not connected to any facility’s electronic medical record system. It stays with patients wherever they receive care and allows them to organize their medical information in one place that is readily accessible. Patients can enter health data directly into Lucy, pull in MyChart data or upload standards-compliant Continuity of Care Documents from other facilities.
As great as the possibility of integrating outside records sounds, that’s where I ran into my first snag. When I attempted to hook up with the portal for DC-based Sibley Memorial Hospital — a Johns Hopkins facility — and integrate the records from its Epic system into the Inova’s Lucy PHR, I was unable to do so since I hadn’t connected within 48 hours of a recent discharge.
Legitimus comments => Why not stay connected while you are in the facility and download it as it gets uploaded? It's something to do while you are in the hospital. Frequency of updates and types of records available in a PHR are an issue. This seems to depend on the facility.
Lucy is a PHR that is not connected to any facility’s electronic medical record system. It stays with patients wherever they receive care and allows them to organize their medical information in one place that is readily accessible. Patients can enter health data directly into Lucy, pull in MyChart data or upload standards-compliant Continuity of Care Documents from other facilities.
It’s a XML document you can load into your iphone and view in a web browser or store on a thumb drive. You can email it and it comes encrypted or unencrypted. But technically it is a CCD or CCR not a PHR.
Confused I was, now I am not, Thanks Mr. Legitimus.
View health records on your iPhone or iPod touch (beta)
With iOS 11.3 and the Health app, a new beta feature lets you see all your health records — such as medications, immunizations, lab results, and more — in one place.
How do I put medical records on my Iphone?
Add your health records
Open the Health app, then tap the Health Data tab.
Tap Health Records > Get Started. …
Search for your hospital or network, then tap it.
Under Available To Connect, choose an option.
Sign in to your healthcare provider’s website or app. …
Yes I know you like me, I like you too. It’s hard to communicate together sometimes. People used to think I was brain damaged and it made life very difficult for me. It was because of the way I looked.The real reason is that there are some stories you never tell because they are very scary to adults.
Sometimes people came from miles away just to see Xxxxx Xxxxxx’s adopted son. Just to see what I looked like. Please see the page The People of Magic if you want more information. I was called a lot of names, but the secret was I was supposedly a Rus and Celt albino or a German albino or other things. Nobody knew,.. because we didn’t tell anybody.
I was born different and was in the LA Children’s hospital for 26 days:
Children’s Hospital Los Angeles – Pediatric Hospital Treating Children in Southern California | CHLA
Children’s Hospital Los Angeles treats children throughout Southern California. Learn more about our pediatric specialties and programs!
It was the best one in California. People said I was a miracle baby because my heart kept stopping and starting when I was in my mom. I got adopted and stayed in LA because the best chance for me was LA. Here is a preview of the people of magic page:
The People of Magic. There are some very different types of Magic in the world today. There is Disney Witches and Wizards Magic, Harry Potter Witches and Wizards Magic and The Real World of Witches Wizards and Magic. gypsypagan.com
Whenever you can see the stars and moons you know you are safe. That is what the little bug thing above this sentence means to people. The name of this website gypsypagans.com is a problem to some people but they don’t know what it means:
It’s mean if you say gypsy or pagan to certain people, you should ask first. There was a gypsy and pagan holocaust in World War II and even before that they blamed people that had candles in their homes on tables they didn’t understand. You had to look for a key on the doorway or a upside down star or other special signals or signs. That’s where that comes from —those kinds of people. It was the candle magic that brought the spirit to people even in the Lands of the Celts. Don’t forget the The Celts and The Pagans:
I started this post because it seemed like some people who grew up here and went through the schools in Redlands California have some issues with being “special people” as adults. I have lived here for almost 20 years now and people have told my stories to each other. The problem was I had a few evil adults who listened in to my house and told awful stories about what they heard and that was wrong. They called me a child molester. It was super mean. When people call you a child molester in a store or a restaurant OR they don’t tell your new neighbors who you really are, you can get hurt so bad that Sometimes it won’t wash off and sometimes it won’t go away. .
Back to my story:
This time I thought that I was being attacked by Neurodivergent Narwhals. It was the only thing that made sense and I asked the Inland Empire Autistic people for help to figure it out. These people were not acting like normal people. It took 15 years for some of them to confess that they were the ones that hurt me and other people I loved. This is when I was a kid in the 1970’s living in Arcadia California. They were from Redlands and we never knew it back then. I am ready to go someplace else now.
Here is the old original post that makes less sense if you don’t know my personal background and you come to visit.
Help I am being attacked by NeurodivergentNarwhals on cell phones that they are calling “Wiccan’s” [Mean, that’s mean to call a cellphone a Wiccan] today and apparently some of them live near me. 05/10/19
Offices Can Be Hell for People Whose Brains Work Differently
Work spaces today come with strong smells, harsh light, lots of chatter, and constant messages on email or Slack. For neurodivergent people, this can be a big ask.
I am a work at home web developer and the mean people found my other website because: Telling someone that you will stop harassing them if they make changes to a website is not fair.
Facebook will not let wordpress do the pretty links so here it is,.. YES I am NOT Pathologizing this subject.
Neurodivergent Narwhal explains Autism, and without being anti-autism or anti-autistic, or negative, or false, which all would be wrong and wrong-headed and serve no-one well. Facebook:...
In my life I got nailed by the perfect storm of undiscovered autism in my adopted family and friends (3+ people) plus “undiscovered” autistic people and their interaction with the elderly in my neighborhood.
Trying to be sensitive to the issues is hard when you are “small town famous” and you have kids that are fans.
The problem I am talking about here is that autism and dementia can be deadly if the combination exists within a family OR it is in a neighborhood and nobody knows about it. If it’s hidden or undiscovered and you don’t know about it you will be confused about the responses you get from people.
Some of the autistic children need coaching in dangerous situations. They need to know when to call the Police Department OR the Fire Department themselves.
If they rely on a disinterested or sick (drunk) elderly population for their cues OR judgement about what is normal and what is not, they will have problems reacting and taking care of themselves in a emergency or helping others that need their help.
Think about this example for one moment:
Someone next door says: “Help I am bleeding to death”
The possibly sick elderly say: “He’s lying” or “She’s Drunk” or “They are just lying down on the rocks” How is a autistic child (or other elderly) supposed to know what to do? If it sounds like dangerous talk, then the talk is about danger.
Call the 911 danger experts.
This is happening too much here and is affecting quality of life issues. Here is your local group and resources to go talk to please:
Autism Society Inland Empire - Improving Lives of Those Affected with Autism
The Autism Society Inland Empire’s Rancho Cucamonga Group will be going to John’s Incredible Pizza. Cost is $20 per person includes all you can eat buffet, drinks and 60 fun world credits. You must RSVP and pay by Tues, May 7th
Thank you Neurodivergent Narwhals Facebook Page
Oh what are the magic words to make people understand?
We reached out to a local school hoping that this never happens again where autistic children have to rely on demented elderly (they have since passed away) to call the Police Department or Fire Department for themselves or others. Hopefully they can help teach the children and their parents about this hidden safety issue. I think it boils down to the “dangerous talk issue” [dangerous talk of all kinds].
How do you teach safety about “dangerous talk”?
I think I will leave it up to the experts on this one.
-gtk
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.