The COVID–19 Race Report
This is the OLD Race Report from the first ~90 days of the Covid-19 Pandemic. Did you buy your Vaccine Company Stocks?
The Race Report March 28 Day 83*
Data from 10:00 CET 30 March 2020 12:16 PM PST
The actual numbers reported to the United Nations every day.
693,224 total confirmed cases
(58,411 New over Night)
33,106 total deaths
(3,215 NoN)
4.77566% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.14124%
[WHO, it slowed a bit today]
Worldwide Hospital Odds:
20 to 1 You live, 4.78% chance you die if you go to hospital and have to go into intensive care.
11,111 to 1 you will be a confirmed case, a 0.0090029090909091% chance
398.86747 average daily new deaths %W .00000516883117%
>20,000,000 to 1 you will live today.
March 28 Day 81*Data from 10:00 CET 28 March 2020 4:35 PM PST
571,678 total confirmed cases
(62,514 new overnight NoN
26,494 total deaths
(3159 NoN)
4.63442% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.13157% [WHO]
327.08642 average daily new deaths
Worldwide Hospital Odds:
20.6 to 1 You live, 4.63442% chance you die.
These numbers are the running percentages — the daily averages and odds. Think about it like a race car. Once the system is up and running and it’s on the track there are adjustments you can do but “the car” is on the track. This virus is out there running around in our societies medical systems and you can’t change what came before this race started. The car is built, it’s done and now it’s running. What you can do is “observe and change” over and over again until you win the race.
What you need to be aware of as a Race Engineer is what effect a change has on the car — as a whole system and that is where your “running numbers” come in. These are the running numbers. In horse racing terms it’s similar to the kind of effect with the horse and riders performance changing together, during the day. These changes also are observable with the variable of which horses are running together and their position in the starting gate. Sounds Crazy but it’s true. So this is the Race Report.
Worldwide Daily Risk Index Estimate is 4.6% – 4.75%.*
If you go into the hospital this percentage of the risk of dying is the same risk range as a heart attack or heart disease. (see chart)
Worldwide It’s 21.6 to 1 odds you live, 4.6% – 4.75% chance you die after you get sick enough to go to the hospital and end up in intensive care
Stale Data/Test Gap Problem : Fix the data stream and know the lag time and you can deal with it. There is a ~5 day testing lag in this data from W.H.O.] The USA finally admits testing lag for the past 30 days. Testing lag time can be less than 2 days or almost immediate.
Side note about testing:
I would rather have a test swab that only has a 30% confirmed positive rate and a 0.5% false negative rate. Then I would use 4 swabs and if they all came back positive you could trust the result. Holding people for 28 days until a nasal and a throat swab both come back negative together is a problem if your swabs have a high percentage of false positives. There are 4 variables: Positive and Negative, False Positive and False Negative per test.
[I think I said it the right way, I hope so]
March 28 Day 81*Data from 10:00 CET 28 March 2020 4:35 PM PST
571,678 confirmed cases (62,514 new overnight NoN + 12.27777%)
26,494 deaths (3159 NoN +11.92345% DoD)
4.63442% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.13157% [WHO]
327.08642 average daily new deaths %W .00034407792208
Worldwide in hospital and you die odds: 21.6 to 1 You live worldwide
Odds that you will be a confirmed case: 290,698 to 1
Here is the problem with the odds these are NOT all hospital cases anymore. With widespread testing the odds are in your favor more than they were. The reality is in this following chart which shows that over a 10 year time span of actual accounting data (from billing data) these were the percentages of deaths in the hospital in the USA:
IF you are in the hospital with a influenza virus the odds that you die in percentages are about 0.5%. That’s a 95% chance you live or 200 to 1 you live
The Numbers in the post below are from data over a 10 year time span in the U.S.A.. This is from the whole country not just one province in China. The W.H.O. (World Health Organization) estimated that in China the death rate per 100 hospitalizations as a whole including the new virus Corona 19 was 2.1% a decline by .2 percent with this virus.
AFAWK In descending order of risk and depending on the co-diagnosis with a particular flu virus the number of dead people per 100 (percentage) who are hospitalized with the flu is:
#1 Corona SARS 1 ~10%
[depends on co-diagnosis — not broken out in US Fed data]
#2 Corona MRSA ~6%
[depends on co-diagnosis — not broken out in US Fed data, (small number of cases)]
#3 Corona 19 Current Year ~0.60-0.9% (W.H.O. initial worldwide estimate)
#4 Influenza A&B ~0.5-0.6% dead people per 100.
[All influenza viruses for the last 10 years included. US Fed Accounting Data]
What that means is that in the USA:
Influenza A&B odds are: 200 to 1 down to about 167 to 1 that you live.
IF you had another condition AND the flu the odds that you would die increased ~1.7 percent to a 59 to 1 odds you live, down from 200 to 1.
Normal Flu: 200 to 1 you live
Flu plus: 59 to 1 you live
SARS 1: 10 to 1 you live
MRSA: 16.7 to 1 you live
COVID-19: 59 to 1 up to 111 to one you live [WHO Estimate]
All Flu Worldwide: 48 to 1 you live
March 26 Day 79* Data from 10:00 CET 26 March 2020 4:40 PM PST
462,684 confirmed cases (49, 219 new overnight NoN + 11.90349%)
20,834 deaths (2401 NoN +9.03724% DoD)
4.50286% world case death daily average today UP. + 0.04476% [WHO]
263.722 average daily new deaths %W .00027057142857
Total world case distribution
The major shift is the +10 to +15 k new cases per day in USA most likely due to test kit shortages days ago. These shortages hampered self isolation.
EU is 54.211298% of total world cases 66.95786% of total world deaths
250,287 cases (29,711 NoN) and 13,950 (1964 NoN)
Western Pacific is slightly down at 21.40943% total
99,058 confirmed (1292) 3540 deaths (22)
[this will probably continue to fall]
Region of the Americas 16.36365%
RoA 75,712 cases (14 878 NoN) 1065 deaths (252 NoN)
Region of the Americas is Down in world percentage totals.
The EU is Higher.
East Med down at 7.011696968%
32,442 confirmed (2811) 2162 deaths (154)
Worst hit in order in the EU are:
Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Switzerland, UK
March 26 Day 78* Data from 10:00 CET 25 March 2020 6:00 AM PST
413,467 confirmed cases (40, 712 new overnight NoN)
4.4581% world case death daily average today UP. [WHO]
236.320 average daily new deaths %W .00023938961039
EU comprises 81.60763% of world totals overnight as well as 65.02468% of total world deaths. The Western Pacific including China is pretty quiet now.
The cycle time is about 4–6 weeks.
USA: 51914 total confirmed with a current 1.29% risk rate that may rise, probably due to the 9750 new cases overnight. We are still at a 0.01731% case rate. Case day rate took off in the last three days, probably due to the 5 day test wait time and rationed test kits. So there may be some catch up going on. it’s been at ~10,000 new cases per day but that’s data that might be up to ~5 days old. The WHO criteria are used here
New York is 50% of total
Highest to Lowest: NY, NJ, CA, WA, FL, LA, MI.
Important to note that NY is in the same range as France Iran and Germany. CA is same range as Norway, Canada, Portugal.
* The running daily average death per case over the number of days range estimate was 4.125% – 4.25% for the first 70 days now it’s 4.6 to 4.75%.
